Dubai/Riyadh — A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has done little to reassure Gulf states, as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to threaten regional stability and global energy markets.
Despite a two-week truce that includes provisions to reopen the vital waterway, shipping activity remains severely limited. Maritime experts warn that the ceasefire has not restored normal operations, with strict controls and security risks still in place.
The strait, which carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas supplies, remains effectively under Iranian control, with vessels required to coordinate passage—raising concerns among Gulf nations that the route could still be used as geopolitical leverage.
For Gulf economies heavily dependent on energy exports, the uncertainty has exposed deep vulnerabilities. Officials and analysts say the crisis has shaken confidence in long-standing security arrangements and highlighted the risk of future disruptions to critical infrastructure and trade routes.
Even as oil prices briefly eased following the ceasefire announcement, markets remain volatile due to doubts over how quickly shipping can resume and whether the agreement will hold. Hundreds of vessels, including oil tankers carrying millions of barrels, are still stranded in the region awaiting safe passage.
Gulf states are now increasingly focused on securing longer-term guarantees beyond the current ceasefire, seeking assurances that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open and free from future disruptions.
With tensions still high and enforcement mechanisms unclear, the ceasefire has offered only limited relief—leaving the region on edge and global markets closely watching every development.