Air Cargo Demand Growth Slows Again In January
January marked the 18th consecutive month of growth in air cargo volumes, but growth continued to slow due to falling yields and load factors.
The latest IATA data shows that total demand measured in freight tonne-kilometres (CTK) increased by 3.2% compared to January 2024. However, the growth rate has been slowing since September.
Capacity measured in available freight tonne-kilometres (ACTK) increased by 6.8% compared to January 2024. At the same time, the freight load factor (CLF) fell to 43.9%, the lowest level in 17 months.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said: “January marked the 18th consecutive month of growth for air cargo, but the 3.2% year-on-year growth for the month was a slowdown from the double-digit peak in 2024.” “Similarly, yields, while still above January 2024 levels, were down 9.9% from December as cargo load factors also fell 1.5 percentage points.”
“While external factors such as trade growth, lower fuel costs and the expansion of e-commerce remain positive for air cargo, it is important to keep a close eye on changing market conditions at this time. In particular, an unexpected factor is the potential for tariff-driven trade policies from the Trump administration in the United States. Fortunately, the air cargo industry has extensive experience in responding to changes in the operating environment.”
When looking at the broader operating environment, IATA is looking at both economic growth and inflation.
Industrial production grew 2.6% year-on-year in December. World trade in goods grew for the ninth consecutive month, up 3.3% in December.
The global manufacturing output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was above 50 in January, indicating growth. IATA said its consumer price index was 50.62, the highest since July 2024. The purchasing managers’ index of new export orders rose to 49.37, still just below the 50 growth threshold.
In January, US and European consumer inflation rose 0.1 percentage points to 3% and 2.8%, respectively. Chinese consumer inflation rose to 0.5% in January after steadily declining to 0.1% in the first four months.
At a regional level, IATA said most international routes achieved growth in January, with airlines benefiting from increased e-commerce demand in the United States and Europe amid continued cargo capacity constraints.
Latin American airlines saw the largest year-on-year increase in air cargo demand in January, up 11.2%. Capacity increased 10.6% year-on-year.
Asia-Pacific airlines grew 7.5% and increased capacity by 0.9%. North American airlines grew 5.3% and capacity increased 7.5%.
European airlines reported a 1.3% increase in demand for the month and a 3.5% increase in capacity.
However, Middle Eastern and African airlines saw a decline in freight volumes.
African airlines saw a 3.4% drop in demand and a 5.4% increase in capacity; Middle Eastern airlines saw a 8.4% drop in demand, the smallest fall of any region. Capacity fell 1.2%.
IATA said the decline reflected the growth in demand at this time last year.
“Following an excellent performance in 2024, reduced activity in Africa and the Middle East in January 2025 led to headwinds to global market expansion, with African airlines growing 15.9% and Middle Eastern airlines up 26.2%, likely due to the situation on the Red Sea.”
