Houthis Emerge Unscathed In Red Sea Shipping Crisis
Since joining Israel’s conflict with Hamas in late 2023, the Houthis have steadily grown in military power and political influence. The war has boosted their recruitment, with their forces increasing from around 220,000 in 2022 to around 350,000 by the end of 2024. Their growing foothold in northern Yemen has attracted local tribes and political groups aligned with their anti-Israel stance. The group’s ability to exploit regional conflicts for political and military gain has raised concerns about internal stability in Yemen and wider regional security.
An increasingly sophisticated military actor in the Red Sea region
The Houthis’ military capabilities have continued to grow with strong support from Iran, which has provided them with advanced missile and drone technology. Their arsenal now includes the Hatem-2 missile, Assef anti-ship missiles, and Iranian-made drones, enabling them to strike at long-range targets, including Israeli, American, and British warships, as well as vital maritime trade routes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
The group’s military doctrine has moved beyond traditional guerrilla tactics to adopt a strategy similar to other Iranian proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah and Hamas. This development includes the use of drone warfare, precision-guided missile strikes, and an increasing reliance on electronic warfare tactics to counter air and missile defense systems. The Houthis have also developed a sophisticated deployment strategy that utilizes mobile launch platforms, coastal areas, and underground storage facilities.
Since November 2023, the group has launched more than 100 attacks in the Red Sea, severely disrupting commercial shipping, delaying global supply chains, and triggering an international response. The campaign serves two purposes: to demonstrate strength on the international stage while bolstering domestic legitimacy by portraying itself as a defender of Palestinian and Yemeni sovereignty.
Despite continued US and UK airstrikes on Houthi arsenals, the Houthis have demonstrated extreme resilience. Their ability to deploy military assets in civilian infrastructure, remote areas, and difficult-to-detect underground facilities makes it difficult for Western military intervention to deliver a decisive blow. Their reliance on asymmetric warfare, combined with Iran’s continued military and logistical support, ensures that they can continue to launch attacks despite external pressure. In addition, the group has improved its naval warfare capabilities, deploying unmanned boats and mines loaded with explosives to threaten waterways and naval forces in the region.
Central part of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’
The Houthis’ ideological alliance with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, often referred to as the ‘Axis of Resistance’, has strengthened their position regionally and domestically. Their anti-Israel and anti-American rhetoric resonates strongly in Yemen, where there is widespread resentment of Western interference in the region’s affairs. They have capitalised on this sentiment to portray themselves as defenders of Yemeni sovereignty and the wider Arab cause, thereby bolstering their domestic legitimacy.
Their intervention in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, in particular, has won them more popular support as they are seen as actively engaged in the struggle against Western and Israeli aggression. This narrative has allowed the Houthis to consolidate their control over northern Yemen and marginalise political rivals and the opposition.
Israeli airstrikes on Houthi positions have enhanced their nationalist appeal, allowing them to portray themselves as a direct adversary of Israel and a key player in regional conflicts in the Middle East. Rather than weakening the Houthis, these attacks have provided them with more reasons to rally support and recruit more fighters. Meanwhile, the internationally recognised government remains weak and fragmented, with internal power struggles and a lack of coordination in military resistance.
The Southern Transitional Council, which controls parts of southern Yemen, has been unable to coordinate effectively with other anti-Houthi factions, leaving the government at risk of collapse. The ongoing political divisions have provided the Houthis with an opportunity to expand their influence to the south, targeting strategically and economically important cities such as Marib and Taiz. If they continue their regional expansion, they can exert more control over Yemen’s vital energy resources, which would strengthen their dominance in the country and increase their bargaining power in future peace talks.
Houthis resist Western retaliation after Red Sea shipping crisis
Houthi attacks on Red Sea waterways have sharply increased geopolitical tensions, prompting the United States and its allies to respond militarily and economically. The Houthis initially claimed that their attacks were targeting Israeli-related ships, but their increasingly indiscriminate targeting of commercial vessels has led to widespread destabilization in the region. It threatens important maritime trade routes, including those transporting oil and goods, forcing Western countries to respond. The establishment of multinational naval patrols is intended to deter further attacks and protect important waterways, but challenges remain to eliminate the Houthi threat fully.
So far, the Western response has been largely defensive, with limited offensive operations into Houthi-controlled areas. Although airstrikes have targeted missile sites, radar systems, and storage facilities, they have not significantly impacted the Houthis’ core military capabilities. Instead, the group has proven adaptable, frequently moving assets, employing hit-and-run tactics, and using a decentralized command structure to support operations despite external pressure. In addition, Iran’s continued logistical and technical support has allowed the Houthis to refine their offensive strategy.
Looking Ahead
The Houthis appear determined to continue their campaign in the Red Sea and launch intermittent attacks on Israel, especially as long as the situation in Gaza remains unresolved. Their ability to maintain internal unity despite historical tribal and political divisions suggests they will remain the dominant power in Yemen. Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to engage in a new large-scale military intervention further strengthens its position, making its expansion into southern Yemen increasingly likely.
But these ambitions come with potential risks. Excessive southward expansion could lead to renewed intervention by regional powers such as the UAE, whose interests lie in securing maritime trade routes along the Arabian Sea and controlling Yemen’s ports.
Moreover, a successful Houthi expansion could create a security vacuum that groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the Islamic State could exploit, further exacerbating Yemen’s already fragile security environment. The presence of multiple factions, including southern separatists and tribal militias, further complicates the situation, threatening to lead to prolonged regional conflict and instability.
Another major concern is that the international community could intervene further if Houthi actions begin to affect Western economic and security interests seriously. The Red Sea remains a vital artery for global trade, and continued disruption by the Houthis could trigger a strong response from the United States, the United Kingdom, and other international actors. While these countries have mostly adopted a passive posture, prolonged actions targeting commercial and military assets could prompt them to intervene more forcefully militarily, changing the dynamics of the conflict in unpredictable ways. Moreover, any further escalation would strain diplomatic efforts to stabilize Yemen, making the country more vulnerable to prolonged war and economic collapse.
On the other hand, there won’t necessarily be a massive international intervention. Despite the trouble the Houthis have created in the Red Sea, the United States and its allies may not want to get bogged down in another long-term conflict.
Rather than escalating to direct military action, they can use diplomatic pressure, economic sanctions, or naval escorts to stabilize trade flows without escalating the situation. There is also a risk that a tougher military response could anger Iran or further destabilize the region, making Western countries think twice before taking action. In the end, there will be a temptation to yield to Saudi Arabia and the UAE and let them take the lead to avoid direct involvement.
