Shell Sees Global LNG Trade Flat In 2026 As Hormuz Disruption Hits Supply

Shell Forecasts Flat 2026 LNG Trade Amid Hormuz Disruptions

Shell has revised its outlook for global LNG trade in 2026, predicting a flat year-on-year performance due to sustained disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The strait, which handles 25% of global seaborne oil trade, has seen nearly 20% of LNG supply removed since March 2026, according to the energy major. This analysis is critical for seafarers, ship operators, and maritime professionals navigating supply chain uncertainties.

Key Factors Affecting LNG Trade

The Strait of Hormuz disruptions have created a "system-wide shock" in the natural gas market. Shell estimates that even if the strait resumes operations by summer 2026, LNG facilities could take six to eight weeks to restore full capacity. This lag highlights the fragility of current infrastructure and the need for contingency planning. For vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, additional voyage time and fuel costs will impact operational budgets.

Timeline for Recovery

• Short-term (2026): Trade volumes expected to mirror 2025 levels if Hormuz reopens by Q3 2026.
• Medium-term (2027–2030): Gradual recovery dependent on infrastructure repairs and geopolitical stability.
• Long-term (2050): Global demand projected to reach nearly 700 million metric tons/year, driven by energy transition commitments.

Implications for Seafarers and Shipping

For maritime professionals, the Hormuz bottleneck underscores three critical challenges:

• Route planning: Increased reliance on alternative passages may extend transit times by 7–10 days per voyage.
• Supply chain resilience: Operators must prepare for potential delays in LNG cargo turnaround, affecting charter party agreements.

Strategic Outlook for LNG

Shell emphasizes LNG's role in the energy transition, forecasting it will remain central to decarbonization efforts through 2030. However, the current disruptions have exposed vulnerabilities in global supply networks. For crews operating in West Asia, heightened security protocols and route diversification are now standard operational considerations.

Shipping companies should monitor Shell's quarterly LNG market updates for real-time adjustments to these projections. The energy giant's strategic focus on LNG infrastructure resilience offers practical guidance for maritime risk management.